Lange termijn indicatoren

Status

Deze week

Vorige week

Verandering

EU BP
NYSE BP
OTC BP
Optional BP
NYSE Stocks above 30 wk MA
OTC Stocks above 30 wk MA

X's
O's
O's
O's
X's
X's

54.90%
65.80%
52.20%
61.40%
73.80%
58.60%

53.50%
64.50%
51.00%
59.50%
67.80%
54.30%

1.40%
1.30%
1.20%
1.90%
6.70%
4.30%

Offensief
Defensief
Defensief
Defensief
Offensief
Offensief

Korte termijn indicatoren

NYSE Stocks above 10 wk MA
OTC Stocks above 10 wk MA
NYSE High-Low index
OTC High-Low index

X's
X's
X's
X's

65.70%
58.60%
97.50%
90.10%

48.70%
49.30%
92.50%
81.10%

17.00%
9.30%
5.00%
9.00%

Offensief
Offensief
Offensief
Offensief

Obligatieindicator (lange termijn)

30-jarige treasury bonds

O's

108.83

108.29

0.53

Defensief

Strategie: EUROPEAN BP BACK TO X'S
The European Bullish Percent reversed back to X's last week. On several occasions during the last weeks this BP has been on the verge of reversing and last week it finally managed it. All short term indicators are also in X's albeit at fairly extended levels.

It means that we may consider taking a more offensive approach to the market. With a level of 55% the risk is also not too high. Clearly a reversal up from lower levels would be preferable but we cannot choose. As the saying goes: you have to dance with the girl that invites you.

There are still several signs of weakness in the market and there is certainly no specific theme or (geographical) sector that is standing out in the crowd. In other words, the relative strengths between the various sectors are not showing signs of meaningful diversion. Finding the right sector or theme is certainly not an easy task in this market.

That means that you have to be nimble and be aware of changes when they occur. In this market you can easily make mistakes. That is normal and part of the investment process. Just remember, it is not a big error to be wrong, the biggest mistake you can make is to stay wrong.
 

Average level: 57.77 (previous 56.13) 

Sector development last week:
Change of status up: Aerospace Airline, Oil Services, Protection & Safety, Textiles
Change of status down: None

Market sentiment: The NYSE Bullish Percent rose for the third week in a row and these advances followed three consecutive weekly declines. However, the three advances have not been strong enough to push the Bullish Percent back into a column of X’s or back to levels seen in January. We would need to see a move to 68% in this indicator for it to reverse to the upside and the current reading is 65.8%, up from a reading last week of 64.5%. We are close to reversing up and with yesterday’s action we are now less than 2% from such a reversal so another strong week and we could see it. We are not going to anticipate a reversal and will wait for it to happen, if it does. The defensive team remains on the field at this time and we will conduct ourselves accordingly.

Sector Sentiment: Most of the activity this week was to the upside with 8 bullish percent charts moving higher and 1 moving lower. There are now 16 sectors in a column of Xs, up 4 from last week. There were 5 sectors that had a change in status. The average BP reading rose this week by 1.64% and is now at 57.77%. Currently, 5 sectors are within 1% of a reversal. The Autos & Parts sector is only .21 from a reversal to Xs at 60%. A reversal to Xs changes the status back to Bull Confirmed. The Gaming sector is only .19 from a reversal to Xs at 26%. A reversal here would change the status to Bear Correction with good field position. The Household Goods sector is only .41 from a reversal to Xs at 72%. A reversal to Xs would change the status back to Bull Confirmed which is positive for the sector. However, the field position is not great. The Leisure sector is only .36 from a reversal to Xs at 64%. A reversal to Xs changes the status back to Bull Confirmed. The Semiconductors sector is only .67 from a reversal to Xs at 68%. A reversal to Xs would change the status back to Bear Correction.


Bron: de hierin weergegeven informatie is gebaseerd op het Point&Figure systeem van Dorsey, Wright Associates